Forex Market Overview All market | Anton Bykov 22 January 2025

17.01.2025 11:01

Weekly Summary: Lower Inflation Ahead of Trump Inauguration

S&P 500 broad market index futures are rising by 2.2% to 5,947 points, which may seem miraculous after their decline to 5,700 points on Monday. The benchmark is now regaining an upward trajectory, aiming to rewrite its all-time highs. To maintain this momentum, the stock market requires the newly inaugurated U.S. president, Donald Trump, to exhibit restraint in his first days in office. Trump sought to support the stock market even before his inauguration by spreading speculation that the new U.S.

15.01.2025 10:01

Crypto Week: Trump Inaugural Crypto Ball and His First Decrees

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.3% this week, trading at $97,335, after recovering from a sharp 5% decline on Monday when it dipped to $89,158, its lowest level since November 18. The broader crypto market faced downward pressure earlier in the week following the release of a strong U.S. labour market report for December, which dampened hopes for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Market bets on a quarter-point rate cut in January have dropped to 2.7%, with March expectations reduced to 19.7%.

13.01.2025 11:01

Weekly Focus: Inflation, Q4 Reporting Season Start and Oil Surge

Anton Bykov

S&P 500 futures declined by 0.8% to 5780 points this week, raising alarms as the benchmark broke below the key support at 5800-5830 points, suggesting a potential continuation to 5700-5730 points in the coming days. This downward trend follows the release of strong December Nonfarm Payrolls data last Friday, which showed the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs, far exceeding the 164,000 consensus. Unemployment fell to 4.1% versus the expected 4.2%.

27.12.2024 11:12

Weekly Summary: Big Guys Upset the Applecart

Anton Bykov

The S&P 500 futures rose by 1.4% to 6014 points this week, signaling the onset of the Santa rally. However, concerns linger as the index already neared its typical rally span, touching 6045 points (+1.2%). Large investor activity exacerbates uncertainty, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) witnessing extreme net outflows of $21.7 billion, a level last seen in February 2020 when the S&P 500 subsequently dropped 34% in four weeks. Contrastingly, SPY also recorded $19.6 billion in inflows this week, highlighting volatile market positioning.

25.12.2024 10:12

Crypto Week: Disappointing Fed, Record Expiration and January Flat Dynamics

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 3.1% this week, trading at $98,146, nearly recovering from a sharp 14% decline sparked by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding future monetary policy. However, the recovery could be temporary, with further downside risks looming. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% on December 18 but reduced its projections for 2025 rate cuts to two, down from four expected in September. This triggered a market sell-off, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.5% on Wednesday—its steepest one-day decline since 2020. Bitcoin mirrored this downturn, falling 13.

23.12.2024 11:12

Weekly Focus: Extreme Banking by the Fed

Anton Bykov

The S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, trading at 5945 points, after opening positively on Monday. This decline raises concerns about the index's ability to sustain an upside trajectory without a significant correction before year-end. Investors are eyeing the potential for a "Santa rally," a period typically spanning the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, which historically averages a 1.3% gain for the index. For the S&P 500 to align with this pattern, it would need to close above 6000 points on January 3.

18.12.2024 11:12

Crypto Week: Trump Pump, Luxury Supports Crypto, While “Penguins” Are Sinking

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 1.0% to $103,940 this week, retreating from a new all-time high of $108,344 reached on Monday. The surge in BTC prices followed a meeting between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. While no details of the discussion were disclosed, Crypto.com dropped its lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) the same day. Trump reiterated his intention to establish a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, a statement that became the focal point of market attention.

13.12.2024 09:12

Weekly Summary: Investors Switch to a Waiting Mode Ahead of the Fed Meeting

Anton Bykov

The S&P 500 broad market index is down 0.4% to 6063 points, marking a week without any new record highs as the benchmark remains below its peak of 6099 points. It appears unlikely that the index will climb higher before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting next week. Investors have been closely monitoring U.S. inflation data, which offered limited guidance for market direction. While consumer prices rose as expected to 2.7% YoY from 2.6%, producer prices unexpectedly jumped to 3.0% YoY, surpassing the neutral forecast of 2.6%.

11.12.2024 12:12

Crypto Week: Formidable Willow, Microsoft and U.S. Crypto Reserves Dreams

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by 2.0% this week to $97,990, retreating to the midpoint of its $90,000–100,000 trading range after recently surpassing the psychological $100,000 level. The pullback highlights growing investor uncertainty, exacerbated by profit-taking from long-term miners selling at elevated levels. This volatility reflects the market’s heightened sensitivity to negative developments. Alphabet’s announcement of its next-generation quantum computer, "Willow," intensified market jitters.

09.12.2024 11:12

Weekly Focus: U.S. Inflation and ECB Meeting

Anton Bykov

The S&P 500 index futures are trading flat at 6082 this week, following a sixth consecutive all-time high of 6099 points achieved last Friday. The U.S. labor market report for November presented a mixed picture. Nonfarm Payrolls surged to 227,000, surpassing the consensus of 202,000 and marking a significant jump from October’s upwardly revised 36,000 jobs. However, this positive development was countered by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%. In response, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.