S&P 500 broad market index futures are
trading neutral at 6,113 points this week. The benchmark set a new all-time
high at 6,147 points between Monday and Wednesday but retreated on Thursday,
erasing gains and declining by 0.48% to 6,084 points. With its weekly upside
potential now exhausted, the index is stabilizing and must hold above 5,950
points to maintain its upward trajectory. Next week, the upside will be capped
at 6,230–6,250 points, with a potential breakout opening the path toward
extreme targets at 6,650–6,670 points.
This week saw no major macroeconomic data
releases. The FOMC Minutes, published on Wednesday, had no impact on market
movements, and testimonies from nine Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reiterated
Chair Jerome Powell’s stance on inflation risks and the need to maintain
current interest rates. None of them addressed the potential economic effects
of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff actions.
Lacking fundamental support, the S&P 500
struggled to hold above 6,150 points. A weaker-than-expected Q4 2024 earnings
report from Walmart (WMT) provided the catalyst for a market correction. The
retailer’s negative forward guidance led to a 6.4% drop in its stock to $97.20,
dragging the S&P 500 down by as much as 0.89% at one point.
The market’s current neutral stance appears to
be a pause before a potential acceleration. Large investors offloaded $2.95
billion worth of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) shares last week but
reinvested $1.19 billion this week. The rise in trading volumes suggests increasing
investor activity, making March a potential turning point. The key level to
watch remains 6,250 points, as market direction will largely depend on how the
benchmark behaves around this resistance.
Manufacturing and Services PMIs, with slightly
positive forecasts, are set for release on Friday in the U.S. However, they are
unlikely to significantly alter market sentiment. Investors appear to be
positioning for a more strategic move in the coming weeks.
Technically, the S&P 500 remains in an
uptrend, with primary targets at 6,150–6,250 points and extreme targets at
6,650–6,750 points. The nearest resistance is at 6,130–6,150 points, while a
decisive break above 6,250 could lead to further gains toward its extreme
targets.
In commodities, Brent crude continues its
downtrend, trading at $76.16 per barrel, with downside targets at $68.00–70.00
and resistance at $78.00–80.00. Prices remain within a broad $70.00–80.00
range, with traders reluctant to bet on further declines, while upside
potential remains limited.
Gold prices are hovering around $2,930 per
troy ounce after surpassing the $2,850–2,880 resistance zone, with a new
all-time high set at $2,952 per ounce. However, the rally appears to be losing
momentum. The next resistance stands at $2,940–2,960, with extreme targets at
$3,200–3,300. A drop below $2,800 would invalidate the current upside scenario.
In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar has
stabilized, with EUR/USD trading at 1.04720. The Dollar is attempting to
recover, and a sustained move above 1.05700 could push the pair toward
1.09500–1.10500.