S&P 500 futures are rising by 0.2% to
6,124 points this week, retreating slightly from the recent high of 6,127
points. This level is close to the all-time high set on January 24, which could
be surpassed in the coming days. Despite high U.S. inflation figures last week,
the index has added 1.48%. While resistance at 6,130–6,150 points is capping
further gains, this level is expected to shift higher to 6,230–6,250 points,
marking a potential 2.12% upside. A breakout above 6,250 would open the path to
extreme targets at 6,650–6,750 points.
For this bullish trajectory to hold, strong
fundamental support is needed. U.S. President Donald Trump could emerge as a
key catalyst, with his scheduled speech on Tuesday following U.S.-Russia peace
talks in Saudi Arabia. Known for unexpected moves, Trump’s remarks could
provide market-moving surprises, with investors anticipating positive signals.
Another potential driver is the release of
January FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. This document will serve as a follow-up to
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish commentary last week, which
investors largely dismissed. Market participants now expect the January PCE
index to decline to 2.6% YoY from 2.8%, potentially reinforcing the case for
Fed rate cuts—an optimistic scenario. Additionally, nine Fed members are
scheduled to speak on Monday and Thursday. If they echo Powell’s hawkish
stance, even a modest 0.5% gain in the S&P 500 this week would be a notable
achievement.
Institutional investors remain cautious. The
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw net outflows of $575.3 million last week,
excluding Friday, signalling a wait-and-see approach among large investors.
The technical outlook for the S&P 500
remains unchanged. The index continues in an upward formation, with primary
targets at 6,150–6,250 points and extreme targets at 6,650–6,750 points. The nearest
resistance is at 6,130–6,150 points, while a decisive break above 6,250 could
drive the index toward its extreme targets.
In commodities, Brent crude is continuing its
downtrend, trading at $74.84 per barrel, with downside targets at $68.00–70.00.
Prices remain within a broad $70.00–80.00 range, with traders reluctant to bet
on further declines, though upside potential appears limited.
Gold prices are retreating to $2,899 per troy
ounce after breaking past the $2,850–2,880 resistance zone. The rally appears
to be losing momentum, with the next target at $2,960–2,980 per ounce and
extreme targets at $3,200–3,300.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar is
weakening, with EURUSD climbing to 1.04800. A sustained move above 1.05700
could propel the pair toward 1.09500–1.10500.