| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | February | -5.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies after falling to its lowest level since early October 2024 yesterday amid President Donald Trump's aggressive and far-reaching new tariff measures.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.05% to 102.01. Yesterday, the index fell by 1.67%. Today, investors will focus on the US labor market report, which will give clues about the state of the economy and the prospects for monetary policy easing (traders now predict four 0.25% interest rate cuts from the Fed in the remainder of this year). The dollar had already been on the backfoot this year after initial euphoria over Trump's policy agenda turned into worry that his focus on trade barriers could lead to stagflation, or even a U.S. recession. Although employment growth seemed to be gaining ground at the end of last year, the situation has worsened again. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 135,000 in March, well below the current three-month average of 200,000. In addition to uncertainty about trade policy, which returned to the forefront last month, efforts to reduce federal employment reached a climax ahead of the March survey. After falling by 7,000 in February, the number of people employed in the federal sector (excluding post office workers) is expected to have decreased by about 15,000 in March, as the ongoing hiring freeze was accompanied by a sharp increase in the number of layoffs among federal employees. The court has since ordered the reinstatement of many federal employees, but concerns about federal funding and the path of other upcoming economic policy changes seem to have spread to the private sector's appetite for hiring. Interest in hiring new workers is waning again, while hiring plans for small businesses returned to their pre-election levels in February. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% in March, helped by a recovery in employment in a separate household survey. But the risks to this forecast are tilted upward, given the renewed moderation in hiring, but slower growth in labor supply amid flattening participation rates and lower immigration should keep the unemployment rate near this range in the coming months. With the labor market still in good shape, average hourly earnings are expected to have increased 0.3% in March, matching the average pace over the past 12 months. In addition to the labor market data, an important event of the day will be a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the economic outlook.
The Australian dollar fell by 1.45% against the US dollar amid a sharp increase in the US tariff on China (Australia's main trading partner). China now faces combined duties of some 64%, when also factoring in a tariff of 10% that Trump levied in his first presidential term. Both China and the EU vowed countermeasures, raising the risk of a broader trade war.