| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | February | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | January | 0.7% | 0% | -1.1% |
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | February | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | January | 0.5% | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | January | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | January | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | February | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | February | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
GBP weakened against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday as investors negatively reacted to the data that showed the UK’s economy unexpectedly contracted in January.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the British economy shrank 0.1% MoM in January 2025, missing economists’ expectations for 0.1% MoM growth. This was the first contraction in three months, driven by declines in production (-0.9% MoM) and construction (-0.2% MoM). Meanwhile, growth in the services sector, which makes up the largest part of the UK’s economy, slowed to 0.1% MoM.
Today’s discouraging UK GDP data prompted markets to add slightly to their bets on interest rate reductions by the Bank of England in 2025. According to Bloomberg, markets now see 57 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.
Some economists warn that if the UK economic data continues to disappoint, the BoE may find it challenging to stick to its cautious path on rate decreases. In their view, there are risks that the British central bank could be forced to accelerate rate cuts sooner than anticipated.