| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | February | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | January | 0.7% | 0% | -1.1% |
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | February | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | January | 0.5% | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | January | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | January | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | February | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | February | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's rise and retreating from the 5-month low reached on Tuesday, while investors remained focused on escalating global trade tensions and risks of a sharp economic downturn.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.15% to 104.00. Since reaching a six-month peak in January, the index has fallen by more than 5% as the idea of the exclusivity of the United States began to crumble, and the S&P 500 index moved into correction territory on Thursday. The potential shutdown of the US government has increased uncertainty, although the top Democrat in the US Senate, Chuck Schumer, said yesterday that he would vote to pass the Republican temporary funding bill, making it clear that his party would provide the votes to prevent the shutdown. Today, investors will continue to follow the tariff news, as well as pay attention to the data on consumer sentiment in the United States for March, especially the inflationary components. Economists expect the consumer sentiment index to fall to 63.4 from 64.7 in February, while annual inflation expectations increased to 4.4% from 4.3%. Experts warn that concerns about inflation may ultimately limit the monetary policy options of Central Banks. Money markets are now forecasting three Fed interest rate cuts in 2025, with a rate cut fully priced in for June.
The yen fell 0.6% against the US dollar, as markets backed off a small chance of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in May. Local media reported yesterday that the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to raise rates in May. Meanwhile, the country's largest union umbrella group said Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for the second year in a row this year. The 5.46% preliminary reading from Rengo, tops both last year's preliminary and final figures and is likely to mark the highest pay hike in 34 years. This reflects a broad agreement among politicians, employers, and trade unions that wage increases are necessary for workers to cope with sharply increased prices for food and other basic necessities. This argument is supported by record corporate profits against the backdrop of a weak yen and the need to retain staff in the face of labor shortages.