| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | December | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 02:00 | China | GDP y/y | Quarter IV | 4.6% | 5% | 5.4% |
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | December | 3% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | December | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | December | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail prices, Y/Y | December | 0% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, snapping a three-day slide, as the latest US data strengthened arguments that the Fed is likely to be cautious in easing monetary policy this year.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.23% to 109.19. Yesterday, the index fell by 0.12%, while data showed that retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in December (the weakest growth in 4 months) after an increase of 0.8% m/m in November. Economists had expected an increase of 0.6%. Despite the slowdown, the figures still point to strong consumer demand. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said three or four rate cuts are still possible if economic data weakens further. Markets are currently pricing in 41 basis points of cuts from the Fed this year, up from 37 basis points before Waller's comments. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 2.7% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in January (compared to 3.2% a week ago), while the probability of an additional rate cut in March is 31.1%. In addition, market attention remains focused on Donald Trump's impending return to the White House and his tariff plans. Investors are concerned that potential tariffs from the new US administration could increase price pressure and limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates.
The yen declined 0.1% against the US dollar, but is preparing to record the largest weekly increase in a month (+1.4%) amid increased expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its January meeting, which will be held next week. Statements by Central Bank policymakers and the latest economic data have led to traders pricing in an 80% chance of a hike next week.
The Chinese yuan rose slightly against the US dollar, as data showed that China's GDP grew by 5.4% per annum in the 4th quarter, significantly beating analysts' expectation (+5%) and putting full-year 2024 growth at 5%, bang in the center of Beijing's target.