| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 03:00 | China | Trade Balance, bln | December | 97.44 | 99.80 | 104.84 |
| 08:00 | Switzerland | SECO Consumer Climate | December | -37.2 | -35 | -30 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, continuing its recent rally and updating its more than 2-year high, as the latest report on the US labor market highlighted the strength of the world's largest economy and weakened the likelihood of further easing of the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.19% to 109.86. Since the beginning of January, the index has gained 1.26%, while last week it rose by 0.64%, as data showed that job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. As a result, market participants have revised their expectations regarding Fed policy - they are now pricing in just 27 basis points worth of Fed rate cuts this year, down from roughly 50 bps at the start of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 2.7% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in January (compared to 8.6% a week ago), while the probability of an additional rate cut in March is 21.6%. However, these expectations may change dramatically against the background of US inflation data - the producer price index for December will be presented tomorrow, and the consumer price index for December will be released on Wednesday. Experts said that any upside surprise could threaten to close the door on easing together.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.3% against the US dollar, despite news that the Chinese government has stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing. Investors also focused on China's trade data, which showed that in December, outbound shipments rose 10.7% year-on-year, surpassing both November's 6.7% growth and economists’ forecasts of 7.3%. Imports also surprised with a 1.0% increase, defying expectations of a 1.5% decline, marking their strongest performance since July. The trade surplus climbed to $104.84 billion in December, up from $97.44 billion in November, exceeding predictions of $100 billion. Analysts attribute this resilience to U.S. businesses stockpiling goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes under President Trump’s administration, set to intensify trade pressures.