International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted next year's oil-demand estimates, but warned that pace of growth is expected to remain subdued

World oil demand growth is set to accelerate from 840 kb/d in 2024 to 1.1 mb/d next year, lifting consumption to 103.9 mb/d in 2025. 

Estimates for this year were cut from 921,000 barrels a day, largely due to lower-than-anticipated deliveries in China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, while estimates for 2025 were raised from 990,000 barrels a day

Both forecasts are considerably lower than last year's growth of more than 2 million barrels a day, reflecting a weaker macroeconomic environment and shifts in oil consumption

Increases in both years will be dominated by petrochemical feedstocks, while demand for transport fuels will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress. 

While non-OECD demand growth, notably in China, has slowed markedly, emerging Asia will continue to lead gains in 2024 and 2025.

Global oil supply rose by 130 kb/d m-o-m to 103.4 mb/d in November, up 230 kb/d y-o-y, on a continued recovery in Libyan and Kazakhstan output. 

Total oil supply is on track to increase by 630 kb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2025, to 104.8 mb/d, even in the absence of unwinding of OPEC+ cuts. 

Non-OPEC+ supply rises by about 1.5 mb/d in both years, led by the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina.

Global observed oil inventories drew by 39.3 mb in October, led by an exceptionally sharp decline in oil products (-82.3 mb) as low refinery activity coincided with a rise in global oil demand. 

OECD industry stocks declined by 30.9 mb to 2 778 mb, 91.6 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for November show global inventories rebounded, led by oil on water and non-OECD crude oil.