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03.12.2024

European session review: USD retreats as U.S. labour market data come into focus

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (MoM) November-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
07:30SwitzerlandConsumer Price Index (YoY)November0.6%0.8%0.7%


USD depreciated against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as investors waited for a slew of the U.S. labour market releases over the coming days that will determine the Federal Reserve's near-term policy path. 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.19% from the previous close to 106.24.

Investors will receive the job openings and labour turnover survey (JOLTS) for October later in the day (13:00 GMT). On Wednesday, ADP will provide its report on private-sector employment in the U.S. for November. And Friday will bring the crucial U.S. November non-farm payroll report. 

If job market reports come stronger than forecast this might prompt a recalibration of the Fed rate cut expectations. Ahead of the jobs data, markets price in a 72.5% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, compared to 59.4% a week ago. For 2025, markets foresee at least 2 rate decreases.

The Fed’s governor Christopher Waller unveiled yesterday that he is leaning toward supporting another rate reduction at the U.S. central bank’s meeting next week as inflation is seen to slip to 2%.


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