According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.3% in July to September. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter (+0.1%). Economists expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. The economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.8% in July to September. This is below estimates of a year ago, and down in the latest quarter (-0,4%).
The ONS said that in Q3, payrolled employees fell by 9,000 (0.0%) over the quarter but rose by 182,000 (0.6%) over the year. The claimant count increased in October by 26,700 on the month, to 1.806 million. Economists had expected an increase of 30,500 after an increase of 10,100 in September (revised from +27,900). Meanwhile, in August to October, the estimated number of vacancies decreased by 35,000 q/q, to 831,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.
The data also showed that from July to September, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 4.3% per annum (+3.9% in the previous three months) and 4.8% per annum (+4.9% in the previous three months). Economists expected an increase by 3.9% and 4.7%, respectively. This total annual growth is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in July and August 2023. Adjusted for inflation, wage growth in real terms was 1.4% for total pay and 1.9% for regular pay.