The yield on US Treasury bonds rose moderately, while market participants are preparing for speeches by many Fed policymakers, hoping to get new clues about the prospects for monetary policy.
The yield on 5-year Treasury bonds rose by 3.4 basis points, reaching 3.912%, while the yield on 30-year bonds was 4.414% (+3.2 basis points). Meanwhile, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds, reflecting expectations of short-term interest rates, increased by 2.6 basis points to 3.981%, while the yield on 10-year bonds rose to 4.11% (+3.5 basis points).
There are no major U.S. data releases scheduled today, so all eyes will be on statements from Fed policymakers, namely Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher said that the Central Bank would continue to ease monetary policy, but at a less aggressive pace than in September (then the rate was cut by 0.5%), as the U.S. economy may still be running at a hotter-than-desired pace. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 90.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the November meeting (compared to 83.6% a week earlier) and a 76.8% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 76.6% a week earlier).