The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) showed that respondents' expectations for headline inflation, as measured in terms of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), remained unchanged на 2024 и 2026 год, but were revised downward for 2025. Overall, uncertainty surrounding the longer-term inflation expectations eased, while the balance of risks remained broadly balanced. The survey was conducted between 1 and 3 October 2024 and 56 responses were received.
Headline HICP inflation expectations for 2024 and 2026 remained unchanged at 2.4% and 1.9% respectively, while they edged down (by 0.1%) to 1.9% for 2025.
Respondents indicated that they see the disinflation process in the euro area as continuing broadly as expected.
The main factors mentioned as explaining the limited revisions to previous expectations were oil prices and expected softer economic growth in the second half of 2024.
Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2029) were unchanged at 2.0%.
Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, for 2024, 2025 and 2026 stood at 2.8%, 2.2% and 2.0% respectively. These were revised upwards by 0.1% points for 2024 and were unchanged for 2025 and 2026.
The upward revision reflects higher than previously expected data outturns. Nonetheless, respondents continue to expect a downward profile owing primarily to the expectation that wage growth and services inflation will both gradually moderate.
Respondents continued to expect a strengthening of real GDP growth from a modest 0.7% in 2024, to 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. These figures were unchanged apart from 0.1% point downward revision for 2025, which mainly reflected a carry-over from weaker than previously expected economic activity in the second half of 2024.
Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%.