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Economic news
26.09.2024

ECB economic bulletin: Recent inflation data have come in broadly as expected

  • ECB staff see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, as in the June projections. 

  • Inflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. 

  • For core inflation, the projections for 2024 and 2025 have been revised up slightly, as services inflation has been higher than expected. 

  • ECB staff continue to expect a rapid decline in core inflation, from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.


  • Domestic inflation remains high as wages are still rising at an elevated pace.

  • However, labor cost pressures are moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of higher wages on inflation.


  • ECB staff project that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. 

  • This is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections, mainly owing to a weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters.


  • The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. 

  • It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. 

  • The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. 

  • The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path

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