| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | July | -0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | July | -0.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against major currencies after a noticeable increase the day before, caused by strong US data that dispelled fears of a recession.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.07% to 102.90. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.43%, recording the largest increase since July 18, as data showed that retail sales increased by 1.0% in July, exceeding economists' forecasts (+0.3%). Separate data showed that last week initial jobless claims fell to 227 thousand from 234 thousand a week earlier (revised from 233). Consensus estimates suggested an increase to 235 thousand. As a result, traders revised their expectations regarding the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 29.5% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 36% yesterday), and a 70.5% probability of 0.25% rate cut (up from 64.0% yesterday). Today, investors will focus on housing market data for July (building permits and housing starts), as well as the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for August.
The Australian dollar rose by 0.3% against the US dollar, continuing to receive support from yesterday's Australian labor market data. The report showed that in July the number of people employed increased sharply - by 58.2 thousand after an increase of 52.2 thousand in June (revised from 50.2 thousand). It was the largest growth since February. Economists had expected employment growth of 26.5 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (the highest since January 2022) from 4.1% in June. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. Against the background of recent data, markets pared back the chance for an interest rate cut this year.
The yen rose 0.2% against the US dollar after falling 1.33% yesterday and reaching its lowest level since August 2 amid a sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields.