| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.25% |
| 03:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Press Conference | | | | |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | July | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | July | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | July | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | July | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against major currencies, partially offsetting yesterday's drop caused by weaker-than-expected data on US producer prices, which reinforced bets on Fed interest rate cuts this year.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, сanadian dollar, pound sterling and іwedish krona) rose by 0.12% to 102.67. Market participants are awaiting US CPI data, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. Economists look for rises of 0.2% in both the headline and core CPI, with the annual core CPI slowing a tick to 3.2%. Such a result is likely to increase the likelihood of the Fed easing monetary policy in September, but a core run-rate still above target should also speak against a larger 0.5% cut or an intra-meeting cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 54.5% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 69% a week earlier), and a 51.3% probability of 0.25% rate cut in November (down from 56.3% a week earlier).
The pound fell 0.2% against the US dollar as UK inflation data reinforced expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of England this year. Traders are currently pricing in rate cuts of 45.61 basis points this year versus 44.6 basis points seen on Tuesday. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that in July consumer prices rose by 2.2% per year after an increase of 2.0% per annum in June (the weakest growth since July 2021). Economists had expected inflation to accelerate to 2.3% per annum. Meanwhile, core CPI - which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - rose by 3.3% per annum (the lowest value since September 2021) after an increase by 3.5% in June. Consensus estimates suggested an increase by 3.4% per annum. On a monthly basis, core CPI rose by 0.1%, as expected, compared with the 0.2% increase in June. It was the sixth monthly increase in a row, but the weakest in that sequence. The data also showed that on a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 0.2%, offsetting the June increase (+0.1%). Economists had expected an increase of 0.1%.
The New Zealand dollar fell by 1% against the US dollar, which was caused by the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of New Zealand, which unexpectedly lowered the interest rate to 5.25% from 5.5%, and signaled further easing of monetary policy. This was the first rate cut since March 2020 and this decision was made almost a year ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) own forecasts, prompting bets of an aggressive easing path through to the end of 2025.