| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:45 | France | Consumer confidence | July | 90 | 90 | 91 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies as investors remain cautious ahead of the release of important US data that could cement rate cut expectations.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.03% to 104.32. The main event of today's session will be the publication of statistics on personal income and spending for June, as well as the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Economists expect personal income to rise by 0.4% after an increase of 0.5% in May, and personal spending increased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.2%. Economists also forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.1% m/m after a similar increase in May. The Fed meets next week and is expected to stand pat on rates this time, but markets predict monetary policy easing in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 100% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The yen rose by 0.15% against the US dollar, and is preparing to record the largest weekly increase since late April - early May, as market participants unwound bets against the frail currency ahead of U.S. inflation data. The yen's rise this week followed the Japanese government's alleged interventions in early July, which wrong-footed traders and led to an unwinding of profitable carry trades. Investors are also adjusting their positions ahead of next week's Bank of Japan meeting, with markets pricing in a 64% chance of a 10 bps rate hike. Meanwhile, today's data showed that Tokyo core CPI grew by 2.2% per annum in July, as expected, after an increase of 2.1% per annum in June. Price growth has accelerated for the third month in a row. Tokyo’s inflation reading is widely considered as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, with national-level CPI data following in about three weeks.