| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | June | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2% |
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | June | 5.6% | 5% | 5.3% |
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | June | 4% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 02:00 | China | GDP y/y | Quarter II | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, while investors assessed the news about the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.11% to 104.21. However, the index remains near its lowest level since June 7. News of the Trump shooting dominated the market mood and had investors reconsider the likelihood of Trump winning the election. Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats. Under President Trump, market analysts expect tougher trade policies, less regulation and a softening of measures to combat climate change. Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax benefits expiring next year, heightening concerns about the growing budget deficit under Trump.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.2% against the US dollar, retreating from a one-month high reached on Friday. Pressure on the yuan was exerted by Chinese data, which points to slowing economic momentum and the need for more stimulus. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that China's GDP grew by 4.7% per annum in the second quarter (the lowest value since the first quarter of 2023) after growing by 5.3% in the first quarter. Economists had expected the economy to expand by 5.1%. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.7% - also missing forecasts for 1.1% and slowing sharply from 1.6% in the first quarter. The figures come as Beijing seeks to shore up economic confidence at a highly anticipated third plenum, a key leadership meeting that starts Monday. The government aims for economic growth of around 5.0% by 2024. Many analysts consider this goal ambitious and indicate that additional stimulus measures may be needed.