The National
Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported on Thursday that it
now sees the UK’s GDP to grow by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2024 and
by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, driven by strong performance of the
Services sector, which contributes 80 per cent of GDP.
NIESR acknowledged
that today’s ONS data, indicating that the British GDP increased 0.4 per cent m-o-m
in May, was better than its previous forecast of a 0.1 per cent m-o-m advance. In the three months to May, Britain’s economy expanded by 0.9 per cent q-o-q, also better than
NIESR’s previous projection of a 0.7 per cent q-o-q gain.
According to NIESR
updated estimates, the UK’s GDP will likely be unchanged m-o-m in June and will increase 0.2 per cent
m-o-m in July, 0.1 per cent m-o-m in August and 0.2 per cent m-o-m in September.
Commenting on
the latest report, NIESR’s associate economist Hailey Low noted that today’s
GDP figures signal that growth remains on the path to recovery against a muted
start to the second quarter last month. 'The combination of stagnation, low
productivity and high economic inactivity, continues to impact long-run
economic performance,” she added. “On that note, it is reassuring and a step in
the right direction to know that delivering economic growth is at the heart of
the new government’s agenda – a challenge which requires sustained effort,
long-term strategy and stable policies in place."