| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter I | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Current account, bln | Quarter I | -21.2 | -17.6 | -21.0 |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | June | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 07:55 | Germany | Unemployment Change | June | 25 | 15 | 19 |
| 07:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. | June | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6% |
USD was little changed against other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors waited for the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for May later in the day.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, edged down 0.02% from the previous close to 105.89.
Economists expect the core PCE price index rose 2.6% YoY last month, decelerating from 2.8% in April. That would be the lowest reading since March 2021 (+2.3% YoY), though it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, the measure is expected to show a 0.1% uptick, the weakest gain since November 2023.
If the actual figures justify economists’ expectations that will solidify the case for the Fed to start easing policy this year.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic noted yesterday that recent data pointed to resumed progress on inflation and said that he still forecast one interest rate reduction this year. His rate view coincides with the median projection of the Fed’s policymakers, announced after their latest meeting earlier this month.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets currently assume a possibility of two 25-basis-point rate decreases this year. The odds that the first move will come in September are pegged at 64.1%.
In addition, investors digest the outcomes of the first debate between U.S. president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, which was conducted Thursday night. According to CNN’s poll of the debate viewers, Trump was seen as the victor, with 67% of watchers voting in his favour.