The price of oil has hardly changed, but remains near the highest level since May 1, while market participants are preparing for the publication of US inflation data, which may affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.
At the same time, the market is supported by expectations of an increase in demand for petroleum products in the summer period. The data indicate that gasoline demand is rising and oil and fuel stocks are declining as the U.S. enters a period of peak summer consumption. Later today, the American Petroleum Institute will provide its weekly report on petroleum reserves, and tomorrow official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released. According to analysts' forecasts, the EIA will report a decrease in oil reserves by 3 million barrels in the week to June 21. Analysts also predict a reduction in gasoline stocks and an increase in distillate stocks.
However, expectations that higher Fed interest rates will limit fuel consumption growth are holding back further increases in oil prices. As the Fed remains focused on reducing inflation, investors will be closely watching the publication of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (on Friday). Economists predict that the PCE remained unchanged in May compared to April, while core PCE growth slowed to 0.1% from 0.2%. A soft reading is likely to bolster bets on a rate cut as early as September.