| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | China | PPI y/y | May | -2.5% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| 01:30 | China | CPI y/y | May | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | May | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | April | 0.3% | -0.2% | -1.4% |
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | May | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | April | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | April | 0.4% | 0% | 0% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, while investors took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the publication of US CPI data and the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.07% to 105.31. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.12%, reaching its highest level since May 14. As for the inflation data, economists expect the overall CPI increased by 0.1% in May, which corresponds to an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. As for the core CPI, an increase of 0.3% per month and 3.5% per annum is projected. The results of the May CPI report are unlikely to have a significant impact on the outcome of the Fed's June meeting, although Fed officials will undoubtedly pay close attention to this. In addition to the rate decision, the updated economic forecasts of the Fed representatives will be important for investors, which are expected to show fewer interest rate cuts than In March, the dot plot signaled that Fed officials expect three rate cuts in 2024. Now, according to market estimates, one or two rate cuts are possible this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 52.6% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 66.8% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The Chinese yuan was almost unchanged against the US dollar, as investors ignored China's inflation data. The National Bureau of Statistics said that in May, the consumer price index rose by 0.3% per annum after a similar increase in April. Economists had expected price growth to accelerate to 0.4% per annum. On a monthly basis, inflation fell 0.1% versus forecasts for a flat reading after rising 0.1% in April. The data also showed that producer prices fell by 1.4% per annum after falling by 2.5% per annum in April. Consensus estimates suggested a 1.5% annual decline.