| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | National Australia Bank's Business Confidence | May | 1 | | -3 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | April | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | April | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | May | 8.4 | 10.2 | 50.4 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, but remained near its highest level since May 14, while market participants are cautious ahead of key events this week - the publication of US inflation data and the Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.01% to 105.14. Tomorrow, a report on the US CPI for May will be presented, which may provide clues about the course of the Fed's monetary policy this year. But this report, according to the markets, will not have an impact on the Fed's June decision (economists expect the rate to remain at 5.5%). But the updated forecasts for GDP, inflation and interest rates will be more important. In March, the dot plot signaled that Fed officials expect three rate cuts in 2024. However, now, according to the markets, this forecast is in question, given a number of unsatisfactory inflation indicators, cautious comments from Fed policymakers and the fact that the US labor market created more jobs in May than expected. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 50.8% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 65.3% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The yen declined by 0.15% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since June 3. Gradually, the focus of investors' attention is shifting to the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on Friday. Market participants do not expect Bank of Japan officials to raise interest rates this week, but they will probably announce a reduction in the monthly pace of bond purchases. Overall, the latest economic data on prices and economic growth do not suggest further tightening of monetary policy at the moment. Most likely, the Bank of Japan will want to see more data on the dynamics of prices, wages and economic growth before feeling comfortable with a new rate hike.