| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:00 | New Zealand | ANZ Business Confidence | May | 14.9 | 15 | 11.2 |
| 01:30 | Australia | CPI, y/y | April | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 05:00 | Japan | Consumer Confidence | May | 38.3 | 38.9 | 36.2 |
| 06:00 | Germany | Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey | June | -24.0 | -22.5 | -20.9 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies amid a decrease in the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy by the end of this year. Investors are also adjusting their positions ahead of the release of important US inflation data.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.01% to 104.61. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.07%, while data showed that consumer confidence In the United States unexpectedly improved in May - after declining for three months in a row - amid optimism about the labor market. The Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 from a revised 97.5 in April. Economists had forecast a decline to 95.9 from 97.0, which was previously reported. The report also showed that consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rose to 5.4% in May from 5.3% in April. Overall, the latest data provoked a revision of the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 10.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 44.0% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 56.1% probability of monetary policy easing in November. Now the focus of investors' attention will shift to Friday's data on the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Economists expect the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index to rise 0.2% m/m in April. This would mark the weakest monthly gain in four months. On an annualized basis, core PCE is expected to rise 2.8%, the same as in March. If Friday's data coincides with forecasts, it may prompt markets to increase the chances of a September Fed rate cut. Another important report of the week will be the publication of the second estimate of US GDP for the 1st quarter of 2024, scheduled for May 30.
The Australian dollar rose by 0.15% against the US dollar, as Australian data showed that in April, CPI growth unexpectedly accelerated to a 5-month high - to 3.6% per annum from 3.5% per annum in March. Economists had expected CPI growth of 3.4% per annum. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, also accelerated to an annual 4.1%, from 4.0%. The CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel stayed at an annual 4.1%. Markets slightly increased the chance of a 0.25% hike in September, while maintaining bets that any rate relief would not come until August or September next year.