| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | April | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% |
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | April | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | April | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, but is preparing to record a weekly decline, as signs of slowing inflation and a weakening US economy increased the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.10% to 104.56. Since the beginning of the week, the index has fallen by 0.73%. The slowdown in consumer price growth has prompted markets to assess the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, the first of which will happen in September. However, the data on import prices raised concerns. The strong U.S. economy also calls into question how quickly inflation can slow down. Meanwhile, yesterday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said that he saw no reason to change the position of monetary policy. In his opinion, the latest favorable data on consumer inflation is not enough for the Fed to lower interest rates in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, a 31.4% probability of a rate cut in July, and a 68.4% probability of monetary policy easing in September.
The Chinese yuan consolidated against the US dollar, while investors analyzed mixed Chinese data. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that industrial production growth accelerated to 6.7% per annum in April from 4.5% per annum in March. Economists had expected an increase of 5.4% per annum. Meanwhile, retail sales - a measure of consumption - rose 2.3% per annum in April, recording the weakest increase in 15 months. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 3.7% per annum after an increase of 3.1% per annum in March. The data also showed that fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% per annum from January to April after increasing by 4.5% per annum from January to March. Economists had expected an increase of 4.6% per annum. In addition, NBS said that prices for new housing in April fell at the fastest pace since November 2014, despite the active efforts of the authorities to support the weak real estate sector. In April, prices fell by 0.6% after falling by 0.3% in March. The price decrease has been recorded for the tenth month in a row. On an annual basis, new home prices fell by 3.1% (the largest drop since July 2015) after falling by 2.2% in March.