| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | April | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | April | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | March | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | March | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | April | -2.4 | 13.9 | 8.9 |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | May | 43.9 | 46.1 | 47.0 |
| 09:00 | Germany | ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment | May | 42.9 | 44.9 | 47.1 |
GBP fell against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as investors responded to the latest data, confirming the cooling trends in the UK job market.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported this morning that the number of people in work in Britain declined by 178,000 in the three months through March, following a 156,000 drop in the previous three-month period. This represented the sharpest fall in job creation since August 2023. Economists had forecast a plunge of 215,000. Meanwhile, the UK’s unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from an unrevised 4.2% in the three months through February. This marked the highest rate since last July and was in line with economists’ expectations.
The report also revealed that softening conditions in the British jobs market resulted in a slowdown in wage growth in the private sector. Private sector pay, excluding bonuses, rose 5.9% YoY in the three months through March, down from 6.0% YoY in the three months through February. The overall wage growth, excluding bonuses, however, remained unchanged at 6.0% YoY.
The latest figures indicated that the UK labour market is heading in the desirable direction for the Bank of England, allowing it to deliver a rate cut in the coming months.
Adding to the pressure on the pound, the BoE's chief economist Huw Pill hinted that a possibility of a rate cut might be considered by the policymakers over the summer.
The latest jobs data and Pill’s remarks reinforced bets on the policy easing by the BoE. According to Bloomberg, markets are now seeing a 50% probability of a rate decrease in June and fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut by August.