The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) said that in 2024, the volume of German exports is likely to remain at the same level after a decrease of 1.8% in 2023.
"Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks offset the positive signs of a slight upturn in the global economy. Overall, the weakness of German foreign trade at the end of 2023, and only a slight improvement in business expectations and investment intentions indicate a difficult year," DIHK said, adding that the trade-oriented German economy is very sensitive to international events that weaken external demand.
Meanwhile, the DIHK survey showed that out of 4,300 companies surveyed, 31% expected an economic upturn in their foreign branches this year (compared with 22% in November, when the last survey was conducted) amid slowing inflation and hopes for monetary policy easing. 20% of respondents still forecast an economic slowdown, which is 8% less than in November. While companies were more upbeat about their foreign-based operations, their expectations for China determined once again: 80% of respondents viewed continued weak demand in the Chinese economy as a business risk. In the US, companies were much more concerned about uncertain economic policy conditions and, above all, trade barriers that may arise in November.