| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | March | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, as investors were wary of opening large positions ahead of the release of US labor market data, which could cause a reassessment of the timing of the Fed's monetary easing.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.01% to 105.28 (the lowest value since April 11). As for the data, economists expect that employment growth slowed to 238 thousand in April from 303 thousand in March, while wages probably continued to grow steadily (+0.3% m/m and +4.1% per annum), which will dispel fears that the economy has stalled after a significant decrease in activity in the first quarter. The unemployment rate, according to forecasts, has not changed, amounting to 3.8%. In general, the stability of the labor market forces the Fed not to rush to start lowering interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 14.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, a 33.8% probability of a rate cut in July, and a 60.3% probability of monetary policy easing in September.
The yen rose by 0.35% against the US dollar, and is on track for the largest weekly increase (+3.3%) since December 2022, helped by the alleged intervention of the Japanese government to support the national currency, which reached a 34-year low at the beginning of the week. Japan's latest forays into the currency market came during periods of thin liquidity, with the country out for a holiday on Monday while the second attempt happened late on Wednesday after Wall Street had closed.