| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | March | -1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | April | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 07:55 | Germany | Unemployment Change | April | 4 | 10 | 10 |
| 07:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. | April | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| 08:00 | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter I | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 08:00 | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter I | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter I | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter I | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | April | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | April | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | April | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
EUR appreciated against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as investors responded to a flurry of crucial economic data from the Eurozone, which showed that the region exited recession in the first quarter of 2024 and its inflation remained unchanged in April.
Eurostat reported the euro area’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% QoQ in the first quarter. This marked the strongest expansion since the third quarter of 2022 and exceeded economists’ forecast of a 0.1% QoQ advance.
In a separate report, Eurostat reported that consumer prices in the Eurozone increased 2.4% YoY in April, the same pace as in March. This was in line with economists’ expectations. Meanwhile, the core prices, which exclude volatile items such as food and energy, rose 2.7% YoY in April, decelerating from 2.9% YoY in the previous month. This represented the lowest core inflation rate since February 2022 but was slightly above economists’ estimate of 2.6% YoY.
Following the latest releases, markets slightly pared their bets on rate cuts by the European Central Bank this year. According to Bloomberg, they are now fully pricing in two 25-basis-point rate decreases in 2024 and a 76% chance of the third move.