| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | April | -14.9 | -14.7 | -14.7 |
EUR traded mixed against its major rivals in the European session on Monday as investors digested preliminary consumer price index (CPI) data for April from Spain and Germany.
Spain, the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy, reported that preliminary estimates showed its CPI rose 3.3% YoY this month, accelerating slightly from 3.2% YoY in March. Economists had forecast an advance of 3.4% YoY. Meanwhile, the core CPI increased 2.9% YoY (the lowest level since January 2022), easing from 3.3% YoY in March. Spain’s headline inflation based on the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) index - the price index used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to measure inflation - climbed 3.4% YoY in April after a 3.3% YoY gain in the previous month. This marked the highest rate in three months.
The flash CPI data from most of the major states of Germany, the euro area’s largest economy, also indicated a rise in inflation in April. Four out of six economically important German states - Bavaria (2.5% in April compared to 2.3% in March), Brandenburg (3.0% compared to 2.8%), Hesse (1.9% compared to 1.6%), and Saxony (2.7% compared to 2.5%) - reported faster annual increases in consumer prices compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, price pressures eased slightly in Baden Wuerttemberg (2.1% compared to 2.3%), and were unchanged in North Rhine-Westphalia (2.3%).
The preliminary April CPI data for Germany are set to be released at 12:00 GMT.
The flash inflation figures for the entire Eurozone will be published tomorrow. Economists predict the euro area’s headline inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.4% YoY in April, while the core measure slowed to 2.6% YoY from 2.9% YoY in March.
If data comes in line with expectations, this will reinforce expectations that the ECB will deliver its first rate cut in June.