The results of a Reuters survey of 34 economists showed that China's exports fell by 2.3% per annum in March after increasing by 7.1% in the first two months of 2024. As for imports, economists expect an increase of 1.4% per annum, compared with an increase of 3.5% from January to February. The trade surplus, according to economists' forecasts, decreased to $70.2 billion from $125.16 billion in February.
The projected decline in exports contrasts with steady external supplies, which was reflected in the March manufacturing PMI report, but reinforces expectations of a significant slowdown in China's overall export growth due to the higher year-ago base comparison. For most of the past year, Chinese exporters have been going through a difficult period due to low demand abroad and tight global monetary policy. Overall, China's economic growth remains uneven, and analysts do not expect a full-scale recovery in the near future, mainly due to the protracted crisis in the real estate sector. In addition, Western concerns about China's overcapacity in some industries may lead to increased trade barriers for the global manufacturing center.