| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | February | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter IV | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter IV | -2.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter IV | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, reaching a 6-week high, as investors adjust their positions ahead of the publication of new US economic data that may affect the outlook for the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.15% to 104.50. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.12%, despite statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller that recent disappointing inflation data confirms the case for the Fed holding off on cutting its interest rate. Overall, Waller's speech signaled that the Fed is more wary of higher inflation, perhaps even a re-acceleration of price growth. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 5.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 64.0% probability of a rate cut in June (compared to 70.2% yesterday). However, these expectations may change dramatically after the publication of new data. Today, investors will receive weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits, the final estimate of US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2023, as well as statistics on pending home sales for February. However, the key event of the week will be the publication of the February report on personal income and spending of Americans on Friday, when the markets of Europe and the United States will be closed due Good Friday. The report contains the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE). The core PCE is expected to have risen 0.3% in February after increasing 0.4% in January. On an annual basis, the core PCE is projected to have grown by 2.8%, as in January.
The euro fell 0.2% against the US dollar, reacting to weak German data. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said that retail sales fell by 1.9% in February after a 0.3% decline in January (revised from -0.4%). It was the steepest pace since October 2022. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. Food sales fell by 1.7% m/m, while sales in the non-food segment decreased by 1% m/m. In annual terms, the rate of decline in retail sales accelerated to 2.7% (the sharpest drop in 5 months) from 1.4% in January. Consensus estimates suggested a 0.8% reduction.