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Economic news
21.03.2024

Swiss central bank unexpectedly cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.50%

  • The change applies from tomorrow, 22 March 2024. 

  • Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold, and at 1.0% above this threshold. 

  • The SNB also remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. 

  • The easing of monetary policy has been made possible because the fight against inflation over the past two and a half years has been effective. 

  • Inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability. 

  • According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years. 

  • With its decision, the SNB is taking into account the reduced inflationary pressure as well as the appreciation of the Swiss franc in real terms over the past year. 

  • The policy rate cut also supports economic activity. 

  • Today’s easing ensures that monetary conditions remain appropriate. 

  • The SNB will continue to monitor the development of inflation closely, and will adjust its monetary policy again if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. 

  • The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026. 

  • The forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.

  • Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year. 

  • The services sector expanded again, while value added in manufacturing stagnated. 

  • Unemployment rose somewhat further, and the utilization of overall production capacity was normal. 

  • Growth is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters. 

  • The weak demand from abroad and the appreciation of the Swiss franc in real terms over the past year are having a dampening effect. 

  • Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year. 

  • In this environment, unemployment is likely to continue to rise gradually, and the utilization of production capacity is likely to decline somewhat further. 

  • Our forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty. 

  • The main risk is weaker economic activity abroad.

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