CNBC reports that its latest survey of forecasters (economists, strategists and fund managers) found a growing confidence that the U.S. economy will skip a recession and pull off a soft landing.
According to the March survey, the average probability of a soft landing was 52%, up from 47% in the January survey. It marked the first time the probability had exceeded 50% since the question was first asked in July. Meanwhile, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months declined to 32% (the lowest level since February 2022), down from 39% in January.
Regarding rate cuts, respondents still expect three decreases in 2024, which would bring the average funds rate to 4.6%. However, respondents became a bit more optimistic about rate cuts next year. The average funds rate is now forecast to fall to 3.6% compared with a 3.9% predicted in September last year.