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08.03.2024

European session review: USD weakens ahead of U.S. February employment situation report

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:00GermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)January-2.0%0.6%1%
10:00EurozoneGDP (QoQ)Quarter IV-0.1%0%0%
10:00EurozoneGDP (YoY)Quarter IV0.1%0.1%0.1%


USD slipped against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday as investors waited for the release of the employment situation report for February later in the day, hoping to receive clues on the Federal Reserve's rate cut path.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.06% from the previous close to 102.76.

The much-anticipated jobs report will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect it will show payrolls jumped by 200,000 last month after a 353,000 climb in January, while an unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, and the pace of wage growth depreciated to 0.3% MoM from 0.6% MoM in January.

If data comes in hotter-than-anticipated this may prompt markets to push back expectations for the first interest rate reduction by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 74.4% chance that the U.S. central bank will approve its first 25-basis-point rate cut in June and a 91.3% probability of the move in July. 

Overall, they foresee at least four 25-basis-point decreases in interest rates for this year compared to the Fed policymakers’ projections of a maximum three.

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